Sensitivities

Talisman’s financial performance is affected by factors such as changes in production volumes, commodity prices and exchange rates. The estimated annual impact of these factors for 2011 (excluding the effect of derivative contracts) is summarized in the following table, based on a WTI oil price of approximately US$75/bbl, a NYMEX natural gas price of approximately US$4/mmbtu and exchange rates of US$0.90=C$1 and UK£1=US$1.60. See the ‘Changes in Reporting Conventions’ section of this MD&A for further details concerning the Company’s reporting currency.

(millions of US$) Net Income Cash Provided
by Operating
Activities
Volume changes    
Oil – 10,000 bbls/d        55 95
Natural gas – 60 mmcf/d        15 50
Price changes 1    
Oil – US$1/bbl        30 35
Natural gas: (North America)2 – US$0.10/mcf        15 25
Exchange rate changes    
US$/C$ decrease by US$0.01 (10) (5)
US$/UK£ increase by US$0.02        10
  1. The impact of price changes excludes the effect of commodity derivatives. See specific commodity derivative terms in the ‘Risk Management’ section of this MD&A, and note 15 to the Consolidated Financial Statements.
  2. Price sensitivity on natural gas relates to North American natural gas only. The Company’s exposure to changes in the natural gas prices in the UK and Scandinavia is not material. The natural gas price in Malaysia, Vietnam and most of the natural gas price in Indonesia is linked to the price of crude oil and, accordingly, has been included in the price sensitivity for oil.